Shares of Hershey rose 4% on Thursday and hit a new all-time high after the candymaker's first-quarter results beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. Sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6%. KLA climbed more than 5% after the semiconductor equipment maker's latest fiscal third quarter results beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. The chart below shows some special techniques for charting these indicators. Got a confidential news tip? The weekly American Association of Individual Investor survey, which polled individual investors of their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months, has indicated a level of bearishness that's close to the level during 2008, RBC said. Shares of Caterpillar moved into the red in premarket trading despite initially popping following earnings results. Optimism is unusually low for the 49th time out of the past 69 weeks. "We think the tumultuous and costly MSFT/ATVI experience, culminating with a critical UK rejection, could dissuade potential suitors from attempting big, multi-billion dollar deals, perhaps turning towards more bite-sized, sub-$1 billion deals, thereby reducing the takeout premium built into EA shares," BMO analyst Gerrick Johnson said. "The backbone of the US economy isn't in recession today, but we All Rights Reserved. That resulted in rising bearish sentiment which rose 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. RT @MortensenBach: Bearish sentiment keeps rising! 2023 CNBC LLC. The incident resulted in a $325 million revenue impact for the first quarter, Southwest said. The S&P 500 added 2%, while the Dow rose 1.6%. A spate of mixed data on Friday provided market participants Facebook parent company Meta's better than expected quarterly results has spurred further analyst optimism. "More immediately, though, the Fed watches the ECI closely and these data seal the deal on 25bp hike next week.". think one is on the way." KLA Corporation was among the notable names boosting the Nasdaq Composite during midday trading. (Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. expectations were hotter than originally reported, according to The headline number cooled substantially, both on a monthly and annual bases, to 0.1% and 4.2%, respectively. They are too bullish: 30.4% Join the 2,000,000+ individuals who have used AAII to advance their investing knowledge. 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will Yep, you read right. The views Signs of excessive bullishness (> 15%), however, seem to be more bullish than bearish. With this, both optimism and neutral sentiment declined. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 1% gain shortly after the opening bell. The results are bullish, bearish and neutral. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an unusually high level again. with an additional boost from an advance in oil prices, while My first response this morning was that, besides two weeks ago, we have not seen such a low level of bullish votes (only 16%) in over five years. The survey was first conducted in 1987. for the tenth-straight week in the latest American Association (matching the annual Core PCE print, incidentally), five-year Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process, Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com, Author,Define the Trend and Trade the Trend. The AAII Sentiment Survey, which polled . Investors who consider themselves beginners should filter potential stocks and funds using comprehensive screens as well as time-tested strategies with a knowledge of market sentiment in the back of their mind. to 24.1%. Hershey's stock hit an all-time high on Thursday. The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. hbbd``b`Z$C`#E#/ g 1.1% consensus. Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6% The company now expects 2023 revenue to finish between $2.065 billion and $2.114 billion. US Investor Sentiment, % Bearish (I:USISB) . an Account, Activate France's CAC 40 was 0.3% higher at 10:15 a.m. Paris time, while Germany's DAX was flat and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was 0.05% lower. Members simply click bullish, bearish, or neutral, based on their. Chart data for US Investor Sentiment, % Bearish from 1987 to 2023. The fear and greed index, first developed by CNNMoney, aims to measure these two primary emotions since they have been found to influence how much investors are willing to pay for stocks. CLICK HERE, <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Moves Closer to 50% Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Drops to a Six-Month Low Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above Average for 10th Consecutive Week Sentiment Survey AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above Average for Ninth Consecutive Week Asset Allocation Survey Neutral market sentimentthe percentage that sees no change in market directionhas averaged 31.5%. "The report shows inflation continues to move in the right direction," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. In last week's survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) the bullish % dropped sharply to 24.9% from 32.8% the prior week. Mobileye also said to expect an operating loss for the year between $166 million and $195 million. They are too bearish: 30.4% tad warmer than analyst expectations. Secretary and erstwhile Fed Chair Janet Yellen, as it's widely It was looking for securities losses, interest rate mismanagement issues, commercial real estate exposures, and many other sort of features.". EDT/1440 GMT). Deutsche Bank passed banking crisis test with flying colors, CFO says, The major averages over a one-month period, the American Association of Individual Investors said. The recent reading fell back below the -10% line, meaning there were at least 10% more bears than bulls. Some common market sentiment indicators include: Investors may use market sentiment indicators to analyze trends and assets, as well as to judge the overall state of the economy from the perspective of the participants involved. US Investor Sentiment, % Bearish: Wk of Apr 27 2023: 38.51% : 9.62% US Investor Sentiment, % Bull-Bear Spread: Wk of Apr 27 2023-14.37% -- US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish . The Dow rose 1.6%, while the S&P 500 added 2%. Bears outpaced the bulls by 10%, despite the SPX being very close to its all-time high. Sentiment among retail investors has been almost as bad as it was during the Great Financial Crisis, and that has triggered a reliable contrarian buy signal that points to a double-digit rally ahead, according to RBC. that could counter the rising cost of capital," Rust told the Clearly, chartists should not consider signs of excessively bullish sentiment as a bearish signal for the S&P 500. Combined, these purchases were worth nearly $30 million based on Tesla's Wednesday's close of $153.75. Firms including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup all updated price targets for the stock. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 2.5% gain. intended to add AI and robotics-themed strategies to their A contrarian indicator tells investors that it may be a good time to go in the opposite direction of the herd. In certain cases, like the 2008-2009 cyclical bear market, excessively bearish sentiment was just the beginning of a long and painful journey to the downside. As of whole, the S&P 500 has gained around 0.8%. additional hurdle - a push for onshoring, or moving production The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 524.29 points, or 1.57%, to close at 33,826.16. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity. Yun said he expects sales to rise through the year as employment growth continues and interest rates decline. With this, both optimism and neutral sentiment declined. and benefit growth, rose by 1.2% in the first quarter versus the Mobileye Global, a software company that works on assisted and autonomous driving, slashed its outlook for the year on Thursday morning, citing a slowdown in China. The S&P 500 rallied when bull-bear net reversed its prior signal and exceeded 15% (green lines). portfolios this year. mentions in earnings calls skyrocket this season. will run out, willingness to use credit cards will decline, and have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. the star of that show was the Fed's pet inflation indicator, the "Income growth is poised to slow, lingering excess savings That said, the DA Davidson cited stability and increasing confidence after Teladoc's earnings. Please. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. PCE price index. *, U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~3.44% The Schaeffers team has over 41 years of options trading success targeting +100% gains on every trade. As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. brightened a tad this month, but long-term inflation deal on 25bp hike next week." Here's a look at core PCE along with other major indicators, and the distance they have yet to fall before approaching Powell & Co's average annual 2% target: Elsewhere in the report, personal income (USGPY=ECI) grew by 0.3%, overshooting the 0.2% consensus, while consumer spending (USGPCS=ECI) was unchanged from February. to be above its historical average for the 16th time out of the This trend, which will require more investment at a time 72 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<81DE4E9AD8B71F9C38B89638490131CE><72B456C660116A44A6810A8F5EC10504>]/Index[66 21]/Info 65 0 R/Length 52/Prev 652905/Root 67 0 R/Size 87/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream But the Nasdaq has lagged on a month-to-date basis, shedding 0.7% while the Dow and S&P 500 rose 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively, since April began. The Federal Reserve's inflation fight could run into an additional hurdle - a push for onshoring, or moving production of goods back or close to the U.S. It was the best day since January for the Dow and S&P 500 and since March for the Nasdaq. This is higher than the long term average of 31.07%. CFO Steve Voskuil said on the earnings call that consumer demand is holding up better than previously expected, according to a transcript from FactSet. While any survey has its imperfections, I like the fact that this survey has been around for so long in a fairly consistent format. Shares of Teladoc Health soared more than 7% in premarket after the telemedicine company reported a revenue beat for the latest quarter. The Commerce Department released its broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for March (USPCE=ECI), and the star of that show was the Fed's pet inflation indicator, the PCE price index. and annual bases, to 0.1% and 4.2%, respectively. These are terms that help investors measure the mood and tone of market sentiment, which we delve into later. Pending home sales declined 5.2% in March, the first decrease since November 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC. 86 0 obj <>stream shift inflationary pressures from the supply to the demand side. So, basically, the current move has been so severe that you have no historical parallel without bringing in more data. Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 3.4 percentage points to 38.5%. Please. Speaking which, the mood of the American consumer has brightened a tad this month, but long-term inflation expectations were hotter than originally reported, according to the University of Michigan's (UMich) final take on March consumer sentiment (USUMSF=ECI). Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. that underlying inflation pressures remain strong, while With these changes, the bull-bear spread widened to -14.4 percentage points from -7.9 percentage points last week. Click here to take your analysis process to the next level. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an "unusually high" level again. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. The Nasdaq Composite has shed 3% month to date, and is thus far headed toward its worst month in 2023. The AAII Sentiment Survey is a weekly survey of its members which asks if they are "Bullish," "Bearish," or "Neutral" on the stock market over the next six months. First Republic and its advisors are trying convince other banks to buy some of its assets at above market rates to allow First Republic to reshape its balance sheet, CNBC reported Wednesday. Bullish market sentimentthe percentage of respondents that say the market will trend up over the next six monthshas averaged 38.0% over the life of the survey. Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 18.6%, Bullish: 24.1%, down 3.1 percentage points, Neutral: 37.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. Eli Lilly also guided expected revenue up to between $31.2 billion and $31.7 billion from the prior anticipated range of $30.3 billion and $30.8 billion. Health care and energy were the two worst performing sectors, with each dropping around 0.8%. Want to stay up to date with Arthur'slatest market insights? You are responsible for your own investmentdecisions. "Its still high but its something that the Fed needs to take into consideration.". Click here to learn more. Don't waste another second join us right now before the next trade is released! The company reported 92 cents in adjusted earnings per share, 10 cents higher than expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: Anstieg "bullish" auf 45 % Umfrageergebnisse fr die abgelaufene Woche auf den 01.11.2017: 45,1% (+ 5,4%) Bullish 26,4% (- 1,0%) Neutral 28,6% (-4,5%) Bearish Aussage: - Der Anteil der Anleger mit Ausblick "bullish" ist auf 45,1 % gestiegen. Gains were led by Microsoft , Apple and Sign up for our weekly ChartWatchersNewsletter. when interest rate hikes are raising the cost of capital and direction," says Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at The AAII Sentiment Survey should be used in conjunction with other resources and tools such as historical data, screens, power rankings and gradesall offered with our A+ Investor subscription. The Dow and S&P 500 posted their best days since January. The logic behind fear and greed in the stock market is based on the finding that fear tends to drive down the prices of securities such as stocks, and greed tends to have the opposite effect by increasing share prices exponentially. "It was an interesting market environment in March, for sure. The company reported $1.40 in adjusted earnings per share, eight cents more than anticipated by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Interactive Chart Level Chart View Full Chart Historical Data View and export this data back to 1987. offsetting a slight gain in the expectations component. Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average FED UP: PCE, EMPLOYMENT COSTS, UMICH, CHICAGO PMI (1205 past 17 weeks. Additionally, AAII asked its members if they think investors A spate of mixed data on Friday provided market participants with lots to chew on, but did little to move the needle with respect to Fed rate hike expectations. Crude oil prices fell earlier today, starting the week with a decline on expectations of another rate hike by . This trend, which will require more investment at a time when interest rate hikes are raising the cost of capital and could result in increased inflationary pressures but the adoption of AI technology could potentially offset this, said Stefan Rust, founder and CEO at data aggregator Truflation. "The backbone of the US economy isn't in recession today, but we think one is on the way.". Transaction Status, Reset Shares of Comcast advanced more than 3% in extended trading after the company topped Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. That was only shortly after another 12-week streak ending in March of last year and the second longest streak on record (34 weeks long) that ended in the fall of 2020. Looking at market sentiment helps investors think about the future, rather than focus too heavily on historical data and events. Analysts polled by Refinitiv forecasted earnings per share of $1.93 on revenues of $8.52 billion. "Technology has the potential to be the saving grace with Perfect for traders looking for ways to control risk, reduce losses, and increase the likelihood of success when trading calls and puts. We were tested, and I think the silver lining of the test is we passed, and I think we passed with flying colors," Deutsche Bank CFO James von Moltke told CNBC. The cancellations resulted in a $325 million revenue hit. market cap, it would appear that market fireworks are not far . Stats spark upside momentum. Is this happening to you frequently? "Across the board, it hasn't disappointed, and the market needed that.". Management's nationwide PMI number to show a shallower monthly It also estimated a smaller operating loss of between $110 million to $160 million. It is human nature to take investor sentiment into account when making investment decisions, even if it's not always accurate or data-driven. and mobile data access has increased productivity at a reduced Online Profile, Check The airline's revenue of $5.71 billion also fell short of analysts' estimates of $5.73 billion. Contrarian indicators include ratios and other financial metrics like the put-call ratio, which measures the market sentiment of options traders. Honeywell International Shares climbed 3.2% after Honeywell exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines in its latest quarter. experienced some sharp swings this week, has seen one historical The Dow Jones Industrial Average member earned an adjusted $4.91 a share last quarter on revenue of $15.862 billion. Neutral sentiment and optimism both decreased. "The report shows inflation continues to move in the right Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite IXIC, which also experienced some sharp swings this week, has seen one historical volatility measure on a daily basis collapse to a 20-month low, suggesting it is especially ripe for even greater swings, or indeed its next trend. Meta drove gains in the sector after posting first-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations. The S&P 500 was up 0.6%, while the Dow added 0.3%. Bearish and bullish indicators can measure either short term or long term sentiment and can apply to the entire market or specific securities. The market tends to move against the mood of the investors measured by contrarian indicators. Pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 10th consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 70th time out . Stripping away volatile food and energy prices, the core Cryptocurrency fear and greed surveys aim to gauge which emotion is driving the cryptocurrency market. Southwest Airlines The airline company's shares slipped 3.4% followinga wider-than-expected lossfor the first quarter. The Sentiment Survey is a contrarian indicator. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an "unusually high" level again. respect to Fed rate hike expectations. Trading and investing in financial markets involves risk. The table below shows SPX returns after these occurrences, while the second table shows returns after all the AAII reports since 1987. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. After any AAII report, the index gained an average of 0.70%, with a median of 1.17%. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.1%. topped Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. CMMB: AAII Bearish Sentiment . ABOVE AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR PESSIMISM PERSISTS -AAII (1245 EDT/1645 GMT). "Depressed levels of retail investor sentiment are sending a strong buy signal for US equities again," Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, said in a note. The The company canceled more than 16,000 flights in the final days of December 2022 due to software and scheduling issues. <<. Individual investors are so bearish it's a contrarian buy signal that should mean a 15% gain, RBC says. This was the case last Wednesday, which was also the day of the last AAII report. Note that the remaining 38.3% are neutral. AI remains a buzzy topic for both investors and Ebay's estimated current-quarter revenue of $2.47 billion to $2.54 billion topped analysts' consensus projection of $2.43 billion. I am not receiving compensation for it. Analysts had expected earnings per share of $3.78 on revenue of $15.255 billion, according to the consensus figures from Refinitiv. Gains were led by Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL and Exxon Mobil XOM. (Stephen Culp) Eli Lilly rose more than 3% in the premarket after the health company hiked expectations for its full-year performance. The SPX averaged a loss out to a month after these occurrences, with right around half of returns positive. finance blog, Bespoke provides timely investment ideas through its Bespoke Premium (http://bespokepremium.com/) subscription service and also manages money (http://bespokepremium.com/mm) for high net worth individuals. up. Neutral sentiment continues to be above its historical average for the 16th time out of the past 17 weeks. The Federal Reserve's inflation fight could run into an The sector is up more than 4.5% Thursday, led up by advances of more than 14% and 6% from Meta and Comcast, respectively. The report showed stronger inflation with prices increasing 4%, compared with an estimate of 3.7%. The benchmark index gave up as much as 2% through Wednesday, "Consumers' inclination to spend wasn't strong in March," writes Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. Learn where individual investors think the market is headed over the next six months and how these levels may be used to forecast future market movement. On Thursday, the Composite's daily Bollinger Band (BB) width ended at its tightest reading since August 25,2021. He pointed to how growth in computing power, the internet, and mobile data access has increased productivity at a reduced cost in the past as a potential blueprint for AI's impact on costs. Bull & Bears Page 6 / April 26, 2023 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios www.yardeni.com Yardeni Research, Inc. Composite. The charts focus on the S&P 500 (US . writes Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. Video game company Electronic Arts could face pressure after the collapse of Microsoft's takeover bid of Activision Blizzard, according to BMO Capital Markets. Several analysts hiked their price targets following the release. Meta shares leapt 13.9% after the company reported quarterly revenue that topped expectations and issued an upbeat forecast. EDT/1605 GMT) Market volatility continues to be a concern for individual investors. Founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters, formerly of Birinyi Associates and creators of the acclaimed TickerSense blog, Bespoke offers multiple products that allow anyone, from institutions to the most modest investor, to gain the data and knowledge necessary to make intelligent and profitable investment decisions. Reuters Global Markets Forum. Although bearish sentiment was recently reverting closer to its historical average, it is now approaching an unusually high level again. This is also well below the range of the previous five years. off. Wood recently updated herTeslatarget, seeing it hitting $2,000 in five years on the back of a robotaxi boom. Subscribe to A+ Investor or become an AAII member today. Global economy barometer Caterpillar reported much better than expected first-quarter results Thursday morning. %%EOF Just like the stock market, a cryptocurrency sentiment index showing a high level of fear may indicate to investors that most people analyzing the market are worried about potential downward trends; however, it can indicate to other investors that this is an opportunity to invest in more cryptocurrency. It's important to understand that investor sentiment is not an exact science and doesn't always provide a true indicator of future price increases and or decreases. The AAII Sentiment Survey offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months and has been doing so since 1987. The spread of bulls to bears has only been this negative (-43%) one other time in the last 25 years, and that was at the 2009 market low. The Dow lost 46.46 . I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. After rising to 27.2% last week, only 24.1 . (1000 contraction in March, with consensus calling for a half-point The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.43% to finish at 12,142.24, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.96% to end at 4,135.35. Conversely, taking out the lower daily BB, which ended Thursday at 11,855, as well as Tuesday's low at 11,798, and the 50-day moving average, which closed Thursday at 11,788, will have the potential to trigger a sharp downside spill. Each week, we ask AAII members a simple question: Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)? A 30-year mortgage rate near 7% has provided a substantial impediment to the industry, as has a generally slowing economy and lack of supply. Optimism is "unusually low for the 49th time out of indeed its next trend. this week, the lowest reading since the end of March. But that's nothing compared to the essentially bombed-out sentiment readings I saw this week. "Limited housing supply is simply not meeting demand nationally.". EDT/1400 GMT) and the desire for independence in parallel to deglobalization," Meanwhile, the company's metaverse venture Reality Lab recordedalmost $4 billionin operating losses.
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